This probability is higher for younger ages due to the projected decreases in mortality rates. Please enable scripts and reload this page. Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, provided U.S. mortality tables. For the purpose of the 26th CPP Actuarial Report, the OCA analysed Canadian experience using methodologies that were developed by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) group of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in the United Kingdom. The TR 2012 assumption is the same for males and 0.1 of a percentage point lower for females for this age group, which increases the gap between Canadian and U.S. mortality rates over time. Years 1921 to 2009 are taken from the Canadian Human Mortality Database (CHMD). The projections of life expectancies for Canada are based on the assumptions of the 26th CPP Actuarial Report, while the projections for Québec are based on the assumptions used for the Québec Pension Plan (QPP) Actuarial Report as at 31 December 2009, and the projections for the remaining countries are based on the assumptions of the social security actuaries responsible for assessing the financial status of the countries’ social security programs. Office for National Statistics. With this approach, for example, if the mortality rates are applied to a new table ending at age 121, i.e. The conclusions of the study follow in Section IX. For ages 45-64, malignant neoplasms became the most common cause of death for males between 1979 and 2009, while it was already the most common cause of death for females in 1979. Available at: Chart 14: Historical and Projected MIRs (90+, Canada) Those with middle to high retirement incomes experience lower mortality compared to all OAS beneficiaries collectively, as shown in the table by the relative mortality ratios being below one. For the 26th CPP Actuarial Report, the methodology used in last (25th) CPP Actuarial Report to illustrate the evolution and volatility of mortality rates was updated to show the possible impact of different long-term mortality rate assumptions. Over the past 20 years, life expectancy and HALE increased in Canada, and the gap between the sexes narrowed because of greater gains by males. Available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/84f0209x/84f0209x2009000-eng.pdf, Canada. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/index.html, University of Montreal. the CHMD Canada less Québec mortality rates for that year). Make Connection to TI-83 (Plus) 1. In general, higher mortality differentials are experienced at the younger CPP retirement ages; however, at all pension levels, both sexes exhibit expected patterns of convergence to the general population mortality as age increases. Chart 23: Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 85-89). Prince Edward Island: 81.6 81.3 0.3 U.S. life expectancy was on the upswing for decades, rising a few months nearly every year. Chart 11: Historical and Projected MIRs (60-74, Canada) Cohort life expectancies take into account assumed future improvements in mortality and therefore differ from period life expectancies, which are based on the mortality rates of the given attained year. Life expectancy at age 65 has also increased dramatically, but in contrast to life expectancy at birth, most of the change occurred after 1950. For ages 15-24, accidents were the cause of a particularly high proportion of deaths in 1979 (65% for males and 48% for females). On the other hand, for older age groups the probabilities of living to 90 increase, since only individuals who have already reached older ages are considered. For the mortality rates of the oldest age group, data quality is still a major concern and much uncertainty exists. The combination of improved mortality, genetic research, and further advances made in medical science raises the question as to whether a life expectancy at birth of 100 years in Canada is possible in the near future. It was thus assumed for males aged 30 to 44 in 2010 that the MIRs will decline relatively quickly, and that the transition will follow the pattern shown in Chart 3 with 25% of the difference between the initial and ultimate rates remaining at the midpoint of the transition period. The corresponding probabilities for the U.S. and UK are 2% for American males (4.5% for American females) and 7.5% for British males (10% for British females). Source: Presentations and reports given at the 17th International Conference of Social Security Actuaries and Statisticians and Dept. Life expectancies of Canadians are assumed to continue to grow, but at a slower rate than what was experienced in the 20th century. Chart 47: Mortality Rates – Disability Beneficiaries and General Population, Ages 55-59 (2007). The mortality experience presented for disability benefits is based on data that were used in the preparation of OCA Actuarial Study No. Table 16 shows the probabilities of living to 100 for those aged 20, 50 and 80 in 2012 in Canada, the U.S., and UK. Current mortality is 15% lower than in the U.S. mainly due to much lower mortality caused by Alzheimer’s and diseases of the heart. Based on the 26th CPP Actuarial Report, it is projected that cohort life expectancy (i.e. Find Out It is worth noting that, in 2009, about 74% of deaths between the ages 0 and 14 occurred before the age of one. This rate is 0.2 of a percentage point lower than what is assumed for both sexes in the TR 2012 for this age group. Table 6 shows the projected period life expectancies at various ages for selected years, while Table 7 shows cohort life expectancies. As a result, the population at ages 65 and over is expected to increase significantly over the next 30 years. Health Reports 8(3): 29-38. Current mortality for this age group is 40% lower than for U.S. mainly due to much lower mortality caused by homicides, accidents, and diseases of the heart. In addition to the stochastic projections of the mortality rates, a deterministic element was introduced in the 26th CPP Actuarial Report to capture the impact of greater uncertainty regarding the long-term mortality improvement rates assumption. If, inversely, mortality improves at twice the rates experienced over 1994 to 2009, a life expectancy of 100 would be reached in half the time (i.e. In addition, Chart 1 seems to indicate that another cohort effect is currently developing for males aged approximately 30 to 44 in 2009. The assumption for other than malignant neoplasms and diseases of the heart is consistent with the approach that was used to develop the assumed improvement rates of the 26th CPP Actuarial Report. Furthermore, it was assumed that the cohort component converges to zero over a period of 10 years, with 50% of the initial value remaining at the mid-period. (15-year moving average based on CHMD). 5.0-year difference between average US female and male lifespan expectancy. Life expectancy measures the average number of years a baby born today can be expected to live. Assuming that male MIRs will eventually decrease to those of females given the most recent 30 years of experience, an ultimate improvement rate of 0.8 percent for both males and females is assumed for the 26th CPP Actuarial Report. The ultimate MIR for years 2030 and thereafter for this age group, for both sexes, is assumed to be 0.8% per year. Therefore, future improvements may come mainly from medical breakthroughs. Available at: http://www.bdlc.umontreal.ca/CHMD/, General Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people. As shown in Table 19, if mortality continues to improve at the average annual rates experienced during the last 15 years (2.35% for males and 1.54% for females), a life expectancy at birth of 100 could be reached in 85 years for males and 112 years for females (year 2009 being the starting point). In a stochastic process, random variation is present, which is generally based on fluctuations observed in historical data, in contract to a deterministic model. The MIRs for this age group are expected to reach an ultimate value of 0.8% in 2030. The proportions of deaths caused by accidents decreased significantly between 1979 and 2009 (8% for boys and 6% for girls), as shown in Table 20 and in Charts 36 and 37. Lastly, cultural and lifestyle characteristics of immigrants may also contribute to their relative better health and increased longevities. Canadian males generally have a lower life expectancy than women, however the gap has narrowed over the past decade. Historically, the level and age trajectory of mortality rates at advanced ages in Canada have not been readily and precisely measurable due to problems concerning the reliability of data on deaths and on population counts beyond a certain point in official vital statistics. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada After World War II, Hong Kong saw rapid economic development and has seen a steady increase in the life expectancy of its people. This paper examines past mortality trends in Canada and discusses how these trends may change over the next 75 years, thus influencing the growth of the elderly population. Males (based on period life tables). In Canada, for both sexes in 2009, malignant neoplasms ranked higher than diseases of the heart as being the leading cause of death (responsible for about 30% of deaths in Canada), followed by diseases of the heart (responsible for about 21% of deaths), and cerebrovascular diseases (about 6%). Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds. Section III presents the mortality projections used in the report, along with the methodology used and international comparisons. Chart 48 shows that for disabled males because of malignant neoplasms, their mortality rates at the higher benefit level exceed the rates at the lower benefit level by about 20% up to age 60, after which the rates at the two levels are similar. Chart 46: Mortality Ratios: CPP – Survivor – 2009 (15-year Moving Average). Ottawa: Demography Division, 2010. A survival curve at birth shows the probability of a newborn reaching a given age. 255 Albert Street Your support ID is: 6172144068456373305. A comparison of the mortality rates between those with middle to high retirement incomes and all OAS beneficiaries is shown in Table 24 (Office of Chief Actuary 2012). Correlated sets of random error terms are generated, and future mortality rates are projected 75 years into the future for each age-sex group and the 1,000 scenarios. Historically, MIRs for ages 85-89 (see Chart 13) have shown a similar pattern as for ages 75-84, and this is expected to continue in the future. Available at:http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/cppas9.pdf, Canada. An ultimate improvement rate of 0.8 percent for both males and females is assumed in the 26th CPP Actuarial Report. Male mortality ratios generally increase from 1.08 at age 43 to reach a maximum of 1.37 at age 62, and then generally decrease and converge to the level of general male population mortality at the advanced ages. Available at: http://www.grg.org/. For both sexes, individuals who are married with middle to high retirement incomes experience the lowest mortality. III. Chart 20: Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 55-64). The following Charts 10 to 14 present historical MIRs (based on 15-year moving averages ending in the given years) and assumed future MIRs by age group for males and females. Therefore, the difference between this approach and the previous model is the way mortality rates are distributed by age. The OAS Program includes a Guaranteed Income Supplement which is a monthly benefit paid to residents of Canada who receive the full or a partial OAS basic pension and who have little or no other income. Male improvement rates are positive for all age groups above age 65 since 1999, ranging from 2.9% to 4.3% over the 1999 to 2009 period. Mortality for this age group is 27% than in the U.S., and can be explained by lower mortality rates for diseases of the heart and diabetes. Gradually removing the effect of mortality from diseases of the heart and malignant neoplasms over 75 years and applying lower improvement rates for other causes has a greater impact on life expectancies than the MIRs assumed in the 26th CPP Actuarial Report. This group experiences higher mortality compared to all OAS beneficiaries, as shown by the relative mortality ratios exceeding one. Charts 8 and 9 present the heat maps of the historical and projected mortality improvement rates for males and females in Canada. From birth to age 14, accidents were one of the leading causes of death for both boys (22% of deaths) and girls (17%) in 1979. Based on period life tables of 1925, about 70 percent of males could expect to die between the ages of 12 and 83; that is, 15 percent of males died prematurely before age 12, while 15 percent who were the strongest died after age 83. There are many factors that affect life expectancy. The effect of an increase in the maximum life span on life expectancy at birth is next examined. This scenario leads to a narrowing of the gap between female and male life expectancies at age 65 over the next 15 years and a higher life expectancy for males than for females by 2026 and thereafter. For each sex, mortality rates converge to the overall OAS rates at the advanced ages. Moreover, over the same period, malignant neoplasms topped diseases of the heart as the most common cause of death. A British male born in 1992 had about a 23% chance at birth of reaching age 100, which is about twice as high compared to one born in 1962, and 7.5 times higher than one born in 1932. ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. A further reduction of 40% is projected ([15-9]/15). For women, life expectancy ticked higher, increasing from 84.0 to 84.1 years. For instance, by 2075, mortality improvements lead to about a four-year increase in expected lifetimes for both male and female newborns, compared to those without such improvements (that is, 90.1 minus 85.7, or 4.4 years for males and 92.5 minus 88.6, or 3.9 years for females). OAS beneficiaries born outside of Canada have greater life expectancies than beneficiaries born in Canada. Under the first alternative, the best-estimate ultimate values (2030+) of the mortality improvement rates are reduced by 0.2%, whereas for the second alternative, the best-estimate ultimate values of the mortality improvement rates are increased by 0.2%. Period life expectancies are based on the mortality rates of the given attained year. However, the absolute mortality rate differential for females between the two benefit levels is smaller than for males. These patterns show the proportions of the differences between initial and ultimate MIRs left at each year of the transition period. Chart 28 shows that people aged between 60 and 65 in 2012 have the lowest probability of reaching age 90 (on average for both sexes). An analysis of the mortality experienced by CPP retirement beneficiaries was also done by pension level, where four pension levels were defined by the following ranges of percentages of the maximum retirement benefit: less than 37.5%, 37.5% to less than 75%, 75% to less than 100%, and 100%. If mortality rates continue to decrease at the same rate as experienced over the last 15 years, a life expectancy at birth of 100 could be reached in in 2094 for men and in 2121 for women. Under this scenario, in 2075, life expectancy at age 65 for males would surpass that for females by 5.4 years (32.8 years vs. 27.4 years). The differential in life expectancies at age 65 between those with the middle to high retirement income and those with the lowest income is 2.4 years for males and 2.1 years for females. The life expectancy table starts on the next page. Joel Yan, Statistics Canada, yanjoel@statcan.ca, 1-800-465-1222 Downloading Statistics Canada Data to TI InterActive! Worldwide, the twentieth century brought tremendous gains in life expectancies at all ages for both men and women. Hong Kong has some of the best youth involvement in education and employment, the lowest infant mortality rate in the world, and high-quality child health care. With future mortality improvements after year shown. In Canada, a male aged 20 in 2012 is 60% more likely to reach age 100 than a male aged 80 (45% more likely for a female). In comparison, a Canadian female born in 1992 had about a 13% chance at birth of reaching age 100, which is 1.4 times higher than a female born in 1962, and 2.4 times higher than one born in 1932. OAS mortality rates are also dependent on whether beneficiaries were born in Canada or are immigrants (Office of Chief Actuary, 2012). Section II presents an overview of historical Canadian population trends as presented in the 26th CPP Actuarial Report. Canada. As of 2009, Canadian mortality for this oldest age group is 15% lower than U.S. mortality, due to lower mortality caused by Alzheimer’s and diseases of the heart. Available at: http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/oasstd11.pdf. Source: Office for National Statistics – National life tables – life expectancy in the UK: 2017 to 2019. 352:1138-1145. Life Expectancy Life Expectancy in 2010 Change 2010-2019 Male Life Expectancy Female Life Expectancy Comparable Country; 1. The required reductions are about 2.7 to 4.0 times higher than what has been experienced over the last 15 years (1994-2009). Cohort life expectancies at birth of Canadians are projected to increase from 86 to 90 for men and from 89 to 93 for women over the period of 2013 to 2075. Laurence Frappier, F.S.A., F.C.I.A. These proportions reached 75% (2.1 out of 2.8 years) for males and 83% (1.5 out of 1.8 years) for females over the most recent 10-year period (1999-2009), and this trend is expected to continue in the future. A brief look at the Old Age Security beneficiaries mortality is presented in Section VI, while Section VII does the same for beneficiaries of the Canada Pension Plan. For females, mortality caused by malignant neoplasms remained relatively stable at 1.9 deaths per thousand from 1979 to 2004, with a recent decrease to 1.8 deaths per thousand in 2009. Chart 40: Impact of Varying Improvement Rates by Cause on Life Expectancies at Age 65. The general form of the equation used is: where: Yk,t = number of deaths per 1,000 (mortality rate) for group k in year t, μk = the mean of the transformed series (i.e. In comparison, Chart 49 shows that for disabled males for reason other than malignant neoplasms, their mortality rates are slightly higher for all ages between 45 and 54 for the higher benefit level compared to the lower level. However, the middle to high income group mortality rates approach the overall rates as age increases, as seen by the convergence of the mortality ratios to levels near 1.00 for both males and females. In Canada, most deaths in the 1 to 14 age group occur due to accidents (unintentional injuries), and malignant neoplasms (Statistics Canada, 2009). Since then, the gap has been narrowing as males have made greater gains in life expectancy compared to females. Methodology: Modified Life Expectancies by Removal of a Cause of Death, Table 1 Life Expectancies at Birth and Age 65 (Canada), Table 2 Contribution to Increase in Life Expectancy at Birth, Table 3 Contribution to Increase in Life Expectancy at Age 65, Table 10 Male Mortality Rates (Canada, U.S., UK), Table 11 Female Mortality Rates (Canada, U.S., UK), Table 13 Distribution of Deaths, Number and Proportion, Table 15 Probability of Newborn Living to 90, Table 17 Probability of Newborn Living to 100, Table 18 Reductions in Mortality Rates Required to Reach a Life Expectancy of 100, Table 19 Years Required to Reach an Expected Age at Death of 100 based on Varying MIRs, Table 20 Distribution of Deaths by Major Causes (1979 and 2009), Table 21 Distribution of Infant Deaths by Age (Canada), Table 22 Annual Mortality Improvement Rates by Cause, Table 23 Proportion of Deaths by Cause (diseases of the heart, neoplasms) (2009), Table 24 Mortality Rates of OAS Beneficiaries (with Middle to High Retirement Incomes, 2007), Table 25 Mortality Rates of OAS Beneficiaries (with Low Retirement Incomes, 2007), Table 26 OAS Beneficiaries Mortality Rates by Place of Birth (2007), Table 27 OAS Beneficiaries Life Expectancies at Age 65 (2007), Table 28 Stochastic and Deterministic Projections of Life Expectancy in 2050, Chart 1 - Historical Annual MIRs (Canada), Chart 2 - Historical Male Annual MIRs (Canada), Chart 8 - Historical and Projected Male MIRs (Canada), Chart 9 - Historical and Projected Female MIRs (Canada), Chart 10 - Historical and Projected MIRs (0-59, Canada), Chart 11 - Historical and Projected MIRs (60-74, Canada), Chart 12 - Historical and Projected MIRs (75-84, Canada), Chart 13 - Historical and Projected MIRs (85-89, Canada), Chart 14 - Historical and Projected MIRs (90+, Canada), Chart 15 - Male and Female Life Expectancies at Birth, Chart 16 - Male and Female Life Expectancies at Age 65, Chart 17 - Projected Mortality Rates (Age less than 1), Chart 18 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 1-14), Chart 19 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 15-54), Chart 20 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 55-64), Chart 21 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 65-74), Chart 22 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 75-84), Chart 23 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 85-89), Chart 24 - Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 90+), Chart 25 - International Comparison of Life Expectancies at Age 65, Chart 27 - Evolution of the Distribution of the Age at Death (15, Chart 28 - Probability of living to 90 for Canada, U.S., and UK, Chart 29 - Probability of Living to 100 for Canada, the U.S., and UK, Chart 30 - Expected Age at Death by Attained Age (2009), Chart 31 - Expected Age at Death if no Mortality up to Age 97, Females (2009), Chart 32 - Mortality Improvement Needed to Increase Maximum Life Span, Chart 33 - Life Expectancy at Birth as a Function of Maximum Life Span, Chart 34 - Comparison of Survival Curves for Males using Different Methodologies, Chart 35 - Comparison of Survival Curves for Females using Different Methodologies, Chart 36 - Distribution of Male Deaths by Cause, Chart 37 - Distribution of Female Deaths by Cause, Chart 38 - Mortality by Cause (1979-2009), Chart 39 - Mortality by Cause for Ages 65 and Older (1979-2009), Chart 40 - Impact of Varying Improvement Rates by Cause on Life Expectancies at Age 65, Chart 41 - Cohort Life Expectancies at Age 65, Chart 42 - Mortality Ratios: OAS Beneficiaries by Level of Income (2007), Chart 43 - Mortality Ratios: CPP – Retirement – 2009, Chart 44 - Mortality Ratios: CPP – Retirement – Level – Male – 2009, Chart 45 - Mortality Ratios: CPP – Retirement – Level – Female – 2009, Chart 46 - Mortality Ratios: CPP – Survivor – 2009, Chart 47 - Mortality Rates – Disability Beneficiaries and General Population, Ages 55-59 (2007), Chart 48 - Mortality of Disabled Because of Neoplasms, by Level of Benefit, Males (2007), Chart 49 - Mortality of Disabled for Reason Other than Neoplasms, by Level of Benefit, Males (2007), Chart 50 - Mortality of Disabled Because of Neoplasms, by Level of Benefit, Females (2007), Chart 51 - Mortality of Disabled for Reason Other than Neoplasms, by Level of Benefit, Females (2007), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people, http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/cppmrt.pdf, http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/cppas9.pdf, http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/oasstd11.pdf, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/84-537-x/84-537-x2006001-eng.htm, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/84f0209x/84f0209x2009000-eng.pdf, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/91-520-x2010001-eng.htm, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/studies-etudes/82-003/archive/1996/3016-eng.pdf, http://www.watrisq.uwaterloo.ca/Research/2006Reports/06-09.pdf, http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.2010.0073?ijkey=SU.Odbex2wK3A&keytype=ref&siteid=healthaff, http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr043743, http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/118/2/577, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/index.html, Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada. 2: historical and projected MIRs ( Canada ) ( 15-year Moving average ) )! 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Disease Control and Prevention been largely due to the MIR that females aged less than in... Report to be quickly disappearing MIRs were projected solely as a result, the differential for and! Evolution of the Chief Actuary, 2012 OASDI Trustees Report, 2012 OASDI Trustees Report, 2012 OASDI Trustees and! To rise, and has seen a steady increase in the U.S., the cohort of. And for females aged 60-74, improvement rates as discussed earlier for ages and! Used tools that were provided by the US Census and Social Security Administration, provided tools modelling... Expected number of years in both Canada and the level of detail required for the analysis! The CPP pays a monthly retirement Pension to people who have low incomes... Siteid=Healthaff, Olshansky, S. Jay, et al younger than age 60, chart 6 shows that age! 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